HOW EACH BOT WORKS
Paper only. Nothing here places real orders. Each bot below runs on paper money.
S4 - BTC discount capture (Kalshi). Buys Bitcoin 15-minute contracts when the market price sits below fair value, aiming to sell as it recovers toward fair. $10 stakes, $100 paper book. Goal: 100 trades before any live talk.
S6 - S4 plus a sanity filter. Same as S4, but skips trades where the discount is unusually large (over 20c), which usually means something is off.
S8 - S7 plus S6's 20c cap. Same as S7 (5c minimum discount on the longer-dated leg), but skips any discount over 20c. Stake is 10% of its own book. Added October 31 from the 14-day study.
S7 - S4 with a stricter floor. Same as S4, but requires at least a 5c discount on the longer-dated leg instead of 3c.
T1 US - Tennis set-1 winner (Polymarket US). Backs the set-1 winner at the start of set 2, $5 flat, only when the price is 50c to 65c, singles only.
Whale - Vetted trader copy (Polymarket global signals, booked on Polymarket US). Follows opening buys from 10 vetted traders; paper-fills them on the live Polymarket US book. Singles only, entry above 60c, max 8 open, $5 guide. Alerts are muted; the book still updates.
lucius@kalshi-vps:~$ live-feed --paper-only
Live Feed PAPER ONLY — no real trades
CONNECTING…
Streamed live over WebSocket — no page reload, no minute polling. Freqtrade on Travis's PC is NOT included here (not reachable from the VPS). Kalshi tick data carries no live scores, so score fields stay blank and are never faked. This page has no login; it shows paper P&L and tick counts only, no keys or tokens.
headline kpis
charts
Bankroll over recorded points
Each point is a real recorded cash/bankroll value from a bot log, in order. No placeholder data.
Tick rate — last 120 seconds
Ticks counted live from the VPS tick files.
Net P&L per bot
Where a bot state file has no single net figure (S4, S7), net is cash minus starting bankroll and is labelled as such in the table.
paper bots
kalshi tick feed
| Match | Type | Ticks | Last tick | Status |
|---|
methodology
Net per bot = state net_pnl where present, else cash minus starting bankroll. S4/S7 chart series are rebuilt from settled trade P&L on a $100 start (early pre-rebase bankroll values are not used). T1 fees are estimated in the sim. Tick-feed books drift over hours, so book-derived fills are not used for tests; tests use observed trade prices. Kalshi tick data carries no live scores. All figures are paper only.
recent activity (live)